HBCSD Corruption
Lie #25
The district's demographic projections supplied by Decision Insite for HBCSD seemingly ignored evidence of declining K-12 enrollment from the California Department of Finance Demographics Unit and the Los Angeles Unified School District.
Proof of the lie:
(1) As early as June 2009 the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) was projecting an approximately 13% decline in Graded K-12 Enrollment in the decade from 2007 to 2017 in Los Angeles County. See Los Angeles County Public K-12 Graded Enrollment from Southern California School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts, “Getting Ready for 2010”, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, June 1, 2009. (Exhibit DI-23)
(2) As early as May 2012 the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) was projecting a significant decline in the birth rate in Los Angeles County starting from 2008 and continuing forward through 2023-2024. See LAUSD Projected Public K-12 Graded Enrollment from Enrollment Decline and K-12 Education: Trends and Implications for Southern California, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, of May 21, 2012. (Exhibit DI-22)
(3) LAUSD’S June 1, 2015 enrollment projections, one year before HBCSD’s 2016 facilities bond to build a brand new campus at North School, predicted a 6.5% DECLINE in K-12 grade enrollment at LAUSD through 2023-2024. See DOF K-12 Public Graded Enrollment Projections for LA County (2014 Series) from Projecting K-12 Public School Enrollments: Monitoring and Evaluating Data Changes for the Los Angeles Unified School District, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, of June 1, 2015. (Exhibit DI-24)
(4) Three months before tearing down North School and starting new construction at a cost of $29M, LAUSD’s June 2019 demographic report projected significant declines in live births in Los Angeles County from 2016 through 2030. See Live Births Among Mothers Residing Inside LA County (2016-2030) from Year 2020 and Beyond: What’s in Store for Los Angeles’ Public School Enrollments? LAUSD Master Planning and Demographics Unit, of June 11, 2019. (Exhibit DI-26)
(5) The enrollment projections for both the March 2014 (prior to Measure Q bond) and May 2015 (prior to Measure S bond) reports did not reflect the State of California’s projections of an imminent decline in students as reported on the website www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/.
(6) Only after HBCSD’s $59M bond passed did DI project future declines in TK and K enrollment that correspond to the CA Dept of Finance demographic projections.