Lie 25 | Proof of The Lie | Hermosa Beach, CA

Lie #25

The District's demographic projections supplied by Decision Insite for HBCSD seemingly ignored evidence of declining K-12 enrollment from the California Department of Finance Demographics Unit and the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Proof of the lie:

(1) As early as June 2009 the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) was projecting an approximately 13% decline in Graded K-12 Enrollment in the decade from 2007 to 2017 in Los Angeles County. See Los Angeles County Public K-12 Graded Enrollment from Southern California School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts, “Getting Ready for 2010”, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, June 1, 2009.

(2) As early as May 2012 the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) was projecting a significant decline in the birth rate in Los Angeles County starting from 2008 and continuing forward through 2023-2024. See LAUSD Projected Public K-12 Graded Enrollment from Enrollment Decline and K-12 Education: Trends and Implications for Southern California, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, of May 21, 2012.

(3) LAUSD’S June 1, 2015 enrollment projections, one year before HBCSD’s 2016 facilities bond to build a brand new campus at North School, predicted a 6.5% DECLINE in K-12 grade enrollment at LAUSD through 2023-2024. See DOF K-12 Public Graded Enrollment Projections for LA County (2014 Series) from Projecting K-12 Public School Enrollments: Monitoring and Evaluating Data Changes for the Los Angeles Unified School District, LAUSD Master Planning and Demographic Unit, of June 1, 2015.

(4) Three months before tearing down North School and starting new construction at a cost of $29M, LAUSD’s June 2019 demographic report projected significant declines in live births in Los Angeles County from 2016 through 2030. See Live Births Among Mothers Residing Inside LA County (2016-2030) from Year 2020 and Beyond: What’s in Store for Los Angeles’ Public School Enrollments? LAUSD Master Planning and Demographics Unit, of June 11, 2019.

(5) The enrollment projections for both the March 2014 (prior to Measure Q bond) and May 2015 (prior to Measure S bond) reports did not reflect the State of California’s projections of an imminent decline in students as reported on the website www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/.

(6) Only after HBCSD’s $59M bond passed did DI project future declines in TK and K enrollment that correspond to the CA Dept of Finance demographic projections.