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Lie #26

Enrollment Consultants for HBCSD inflated Transitional Kindergarten (TK) and Kindergarten (K) enrollment and seemingly did not take into account the full-time to half-time change in TK and K classes even as their May 2015 report was titled "Conservative 5-Year Projections, Assuming Return to Half Day Kindergarten".

Proof of the lie:


Both the transitional kindergarten and kindergarten counts were inflated upward on the Decision Insite (DI) Forecasting Reports from March 2014 and May 2015:


NOTE: It appears as if the district's enrollment consultants, Decision Insite, purposely inflated HBCSD enrollment projections to conform to the wishes of School Board members to pass a $59M bond in order to rebuild North School (aka Vista School) and expand View School.


NOTE: As of 2023, Hermosa students totaled approximately 1,200 students. After North School was rebuilt and View School was expanded, the district student capacity totaled approximately 1,968 students. HBCSD would over-build district capacity by nearly 768 students or 32 classrooms. There is no evidence from State of California demographics unit that K-12 enrollment will rise in Los Angeles County (and Hermosa Beach) anytime soon.


 

(1)       HBCSD actual average TK and K count in 2012-2013 school year was about 163 students HBCSD actual average TK and K count in 2013-2014 school year was about 154 students Yet DI’s Five-Year Projections for March 2014 projected 178 TK and K students (23TK+155K = 178) for the coming year (2015, 2016, 2017).  How did Decision Insite come up with their  count of 178 TK and K students for 2015, 2016 and 2017?

 

(2)       Decision Insite (DI) inexplicably projected higher than normal enrollment for future TK and K students in 2015, 2016, and 2017. However, DI’s March 2014 Five-Year Projections showed declining enrollment after 2015.

 

(3)       HBCSD actual average TK and K count in 2014-2015 while offering full-day instruction was 170 students.  The difference of 8 less TK and K students is significant considering that HBCSD only had 1,460 to 1,473 total students in 2014-2015 school year. 

 

(4)       In February 2015, HBCSD school board members decided to disband the district’s all-day TK and K offering in order to house the district's TK and K enrollment in less classrooms. Returning to half-day enrollment would allow the district to hold two TK and K classes instead of one class per classroom per day. Half-day TK and K classes supported a morning (AM) class and an afternoon (PM) class (twice the students) in one classroom. The California Department of Education does NOT require that TK and K students attend full-day instruction.


(5) All-day TK and K was introduced in the 2011/2012 school year to increase district revenue.


NOTE: At the time full-day TK and K was added to district offerings, HBCSD campuses were already overcrowded.


At the time full-day TK and K classes were offered, other school districts in the area, including Manhattan Beach Unified School district, were NOT offering full-day TK and K, therefore HBCSD was able to attract those parents who needed/wanted the full-day TK and K option for their children.


(6) It was also assumed that after eliminating full-day TK and K classes some working parents would abandon HBCSD in order to find other full-time kindergarten options.   Therefore, with the suspension of full-day TK and K classes, it was assumed that TK-K enrollment would decline.

 

(7)       However, DI’s 2015 Five-Year Projections did not project future lower TK and K enrollment with the change from full-day TK and K classes to half-day classes.  DI’s May 2015 Projections estimated about 175 TK and K students in the coming year (2015/2016 school year), an increase in current TK-K students even though Decision Insite had labeled their report as a "Conservative 5-Year Projection, Assuming Return to Half Day Kindergarten” scenario for the district.   


(8)      Decision Insite’s May 2015 Enrollment Projections also estimated a high TK and K count for 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 school years despite supposedly returning to half-day TK and K classes and despite evidence from the CA Department of Finance demographic unit of eminent future declines in TK and K enrollment.


(9) One year before the district’s 2016 bond vote, Decision Insite’s May 2015 Enrollment Projections did not project any less TK and K students in the district after HBCSD returned to half-day kindergarten.

 

(10)       Surprisingly, after the district’s $59M bond passed, both Decision Insite’s November 2016 and November 2018 enrollment projections both showed significant future LOWER TK and K enrollment.

 

(11)       DI’s November 2016 enrollment projections estimated 127 to 122 TK and K students from 2016 to 2021 versus their estimate of 174 TK and K students prior to the district’s $59M bond being passed.  Six months after the district’s bond had passed in June 2016, DI changed their projections by about 50 less students in TK and K than their enrollment projections released before the district’s 2016 bond vote.

 

(12)       The new DI estimates released after the district won their $59 bond vote in November 2016 and 2018 now tracked with the CA Dept. of Finance projections of State-wide future declining enrollment.  However, even after DI’s new 2016 and 2018 projections of lower enrollment school board members did not change their plans to demolish North School and build a brand-new 510 student campus.  


NOTE: Demolishing and rebuilding North School cost $29M dollars and took approximately five years. In the meantime students waited in overcrowded conditions. How long would it have taken if school board members had changed their plan after receiving information of future declines in enrollment to that of renovating North School instead of rebuilding the campus?


NOTE: As of 2023, HBCSD has approximately 23 unused or underused classrooms. HBCSD has space for approximately 1,902 students and enrollment of approximately 1,339 students. The 1,339 students includes 174 students brought in to HBCSD from other school districts on interdistrict permits. Only 1,165 students are from Hermosa Beach. The last time HBCSD had enrollment of 1,165 students was in September 2008 - when school board members finished building the new construction at Valley School (less additional classrooms).




The information in this website proves these statement as fact.

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