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Lie #32

HBCSD enrollment consultants, Decision Instie's May 2015 enrollment projections for the 2015- 2016 school year predicted rising enrollment prior to the June 2016 $59M Measure S bond vote.  

Proof of the lie:


(1)         Only six months after the district’s $59M facilities bond passed in June 2016, Decision Insite’s changed their May 2015 Enrollment Projections from 1,543 students in 2019 to that of only 1,234 students in 2019.   DI changed their enrollment prediction to a 309 student DECLINE in HBCSD by September 2019 from the May 2015 enrollment projections.  See Decision Insite enrollment report 5 Year Projections for May 2015 and November 2016.  (Exhibit DI-40)

 

(2)         NOTE: Coincidentally, the release of the Decision Insite Enrollment Reports and presentations showing declining enrollment after the district’s $59M bond was passed were held in November and December during the busy holiday season when members of the community were distracted by the holidays.  HBCSD also released the large and extensive preliminary Environmental Impact Report for public review and comment during the holidays.  The Environmental Impact Report required a response in the first week of January which would also act to distract anyone paying attention to what was happening in the school district.  Prior to the district bond votes in 2014 and 2016, Decision Insite enrollment reports were released in the spring when people were less distracted and supposedly would notice the projections of increased future enrollment.  The DI enrollment projections released in the spring just happened to support the district’s facility plans and their desire to pass a large facilities bond. 

 

(3)         How could the 2015 enrollment projections that were labeled “Conservative 5 Year Projections” turn out to be so wrong?  What was “CONSERVATIVE about them?  (Exhibit DI-41)

 

(4)         In a January 2017 article in the Easy Reader, Decision Insite’s president, Dean Waldfogel, stated that he knew of only ONE school district in California that had experienced increased enrollment.  Why then did Decision Insite seemingly NOT take that information into account when it projected rising enrollment at HBCSD through 2019 on it’s May 2015 Enrollment report?  (Exhibit DI-25)

 

(5)         Subsequently, Decision Insite enrollment projections continued to predict annual declining district enrollment after the district’s $59M facilities bond Measure S was passed.   For example, DI’s November 2018 enrollment report projected an additional decline of 308 students by September 2023 than was projected for September 2019 on the May 2015 Enrollment Projections prior to the Measure S bond passage.  (Exhibit DI-42)

 

(6)         Despite the new projections of substantial future decreases in HBCSD enrollment, school board members continued with their plans to build a brand-new 510 student campus at North School and increase the student capacity of View School.  With the district's $59M bond, HBCSD would increase it’s capacity to approximately 1,968 students.  HBCSD high enrollment in 2014 had been 1,472 students.  By 2022, enrollment at HBCSD would be 1,200 Hermosa students and 80 students brought in from other school districts for a total of 1,280 students.

 

(7)         By 2022 and 2023 school years, after North School and View School had been rebuilt/renovated, HBCSD would have approximately 688 unused student capacity or seats within the district.  Taxpayers had paid $59 million dollars to create 688 empty seats at HBCSD.  There were no indications of any future increases in K-12 enrollment at HBCD and in all coastal counties in Southern California projected by the CA Department of Finance.

 

(8)         With interest over time the district’s 2016 $59 million bond was projected to cost taxpayers approximately $98 million by 2040.



The information in this website proves these statement as fact.

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